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Why haven’t home prices crashed?

March 26, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 7 Comments

It’s 2007 all over again. Get ready because we’re going to crash. We’ve been hearing this for five years, but here we are in a market with high prices and not much relief. Let’s look at why prices haven’t crashed like so many have predicted.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

3/27/26 Prime Real Estate (private)
4/9/26 Realtist Association of Sacramento
4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
4/22/26 EDCAR
4/28/26 PCAR Rocklin
5/7/26 Empire State of Mind
5/15/26 Nevada County TBA
6/3/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker EDH

ACTIVE LISTINGS ARE NOWHERE NEAR 2008 LEVELS

In our largest local county, we had nearly 9,000 active listings at this time in 2008 compared with 1,500 today. Can you imagine how different the housing market would feel if we added 7,500 more listings? No wonder why prices haven’t been able to implode like back then since the supply situation is far different today.

NOT THE WIDEST GAP EVER BETWEEN BUYERS & SELLERS

There is so much talk about the housing market having the widest gap ever between sellers and buyers, but let’s check the fine print. Look, I really like much of what Redfin puts out there, but this narrative is a miss. There is a viral Redfin story about “the biggest gap on record” with sellers outnumbering buyers, but their stats only go back to 2013, so “biggest gap” needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The problem is people hear “on record” and assume it’s even worse than 2007 today.

ONE THING IS NOT LIKE THE OTHER

There is a massive difference today compared with the carnage of the Great Financial Crisis. I wish there were more data sources showing this online so we can have informed discussions. It seems like listing data from the GFC just isn’t available or shared for whatever reason. So, here’s some local flavor. What stands out to you?

ONLY VOLUME STATS ARE SIMILAR TO THE CRASH

I think people often flippantly compare today with 2007 without really looking into the numbers. Out of all the stats I follow, the only one that is similar to those days is the number of sales happening. Housing supply was exponentially higher in those days, it was taking over 100 days to sell compared to about 40 days lately, prices were tanking compared with softening a couple percent this past year, and the market was dominated by foreclosures (they hardly exist today). I don’t say any of this to sugarcoat the trend today, so save your hate mail. I’m only trying to say we need to be cautious about flippantly saying it’s 2007 again in the stats. This doesn’t mean there aren’t red flags to watch today either such as mortgage delinquencies.

THE MARKET HAS GROWN SOFTER THOUGH

The gap between listings and sales has widened in recent years, so I get people talking about the housing market being softer or prices dipping. But the gap between listings and sales has been nowhere wide enough in most areas to create quick price change like we saw in 2007 and 2008. So, maybe stop telling people we’re going to see a 2007 implosion with 2026 stats. Could we still see prices go down though? Of course.

One thing to continue to watch ahead is buyer and seller behavior in light of higher mortgage rates and gas prices (Iran War). I don’t think the local housing market has seen an inflection point yet in the stats from this, but if rates keep moving up and confidence moves down, that’ll show up in the numbers at some point. The positive news in recent months is we’ve been seeing sellers come back to the market this year after backing off in 2025. The hope is to see this continue since we need more supply if we ever want this housing market to heal and not feel stuck.

2007 ISN’T THE ONLY TIME PRICES DROPPED

Some people treat what happened in 2007 like the new template for every future housing market correction, but what happened then isn’t the new formula for every downtrend ahead. Locally, prices dipped in the early ’80s and ’90s, so it’s not like 2007 is the only example on record of prices ever dropping. Here’s a snippet from the Sacramento Bee in 1994 to show year-over-year downward price change.

The median sales price declined 24% during the early ’90s. I realize we are dealing with smaller numbers, but that’s what the market was like back then. Declines felt real to people back then, so be careful about looking at this with the benefit of knowing the future.

SUPPLY HASN’T BUILT LIKE IT DID BACK THEN

One of the huge differences between back then and today is supply began to build immediately in the summer of 2005. In fact, it tripled in one year. Meanwhile, prices dropped 6% during this time, but the bigger issue was how much supply was building in the background to set the stage for an implosion in 2007. In contrast, supply is still pretty limited today no matter how we look at it, and prices have dropped about 7% to 8% over the course of FOUR YEARS. Notably, we don’t have a ton of supply that has built to help create quick change ahead like we did back then.

I realize some people say, “But the crash looks different today. It’s a slow burn crash over many years.” Umm, okay, then let’s call it a correction instead since a crash by definition is something sharp and quick.

FOUR LONG YEARS AND THIS IS ALL WE HAVE

It’s been nearly four years since prices peaked in the local market. The median sales price is down 8% in the region from mid-2022, and Zillow’s price index for Sacramento is down about 7%. I’m not glossing over this decline, but it’s stunning to only be down this amount in the midst of glaring affordability issues. The x-factor for why prices haven’t dropped more substantially is a lack of supply. Sellers have not been coming to the market at normal levels and distressed inventory has hardly built. By the way, I find myself these days looking at lots of different price metrics to interpret change (not just the median or average).

NOTE: Don’t be rigid about saying prices are down this exact amount in every neighborhood and price range. Look to the comps.

CLOSING THOUGHTS

Let’s keep watching the market and being cautious about looking at things through a doom or rose-colored lens. Imposing a narrative on the market makes conversation boring for me when we’re stuck in polarizing positions instead of trying to interpret what is in front of us. The goal here is to let the stats form the narrative rather than impose a narrative on the stats. And right now, we can say the housing market has definitely softened in recent years, but it’s also nothing like 2007 in the stats too.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you most above? What similarities and differences do you see today with 2007? Anything to add?

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Selling $2M over the list price

March 18, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 6 Comments

A property in San Francisco just sold two million dollars over the asking price, and it’s been getting viral attention. I thought it would be fun to dig into this one and highlight some stunning stats. Let’s compare Sacramento pricing vibes to the Bay Area also since agents can make some big mistakes when taking listings in the other area.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

3/19/26 Yolo YPN event
3/25/26 Coldwell Banker EDH
3/27/26 Prime Real Estate (private)
4/9/26 Realtist Association of Sacramento
4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
4/22/26 EDCAR
4/28/26 PCAR Rocklin
5/7/26 Empire State of Mind
5/15/26 Nevada County TBA
6/3/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker EDH

GOING TWO MILLION OVER ASKING PRICE

This property on 12th Avenue is getting viral attention since it sold just about $2M over the asking price. I’ll let locals digest whether the price tag was above value or not. I’m only going to focus on it selling $2M above.

SAN FRANCISCO PRICING IS A DIFFERENT ANIMAL

In some portions of the Bay Area, properties are priced strategically low to generate quick interest, and that’s true in San Francisco (I’ll share other Bay Area counties below). Over 90% of sales so far in March 2026 have sold ABOVE the original list price, and when properties sold above, they went 20% above on average. Homes have sold in an average of 11 days too, so it’s lighting speed time. In short, this is a market where almost everything is priced low on purpose. I realize there is an AI tech boom happening right now, but pricing strategically low has been a vibe for many years beyond just recent time. For context, check out how different Sacramento is compared to San Francisco.

HOW COMMON IS IT TO SELL $2M ABOVE?

Selling $2M above doesn’t happen very often, and so far in 2026, this is basically flirting with a few other examples at the same level. The average above in March 2026 has been $474,774.

Let’s look at it from a percentage standpoint too. This property on 12th Avenue sold about 65% above the original price, and that’s definitely on the higher side of the range, but there was one property at just over 90%.

LOOKING AT THE ENTIRE BAY AREA

And when looking at the entire Bay Area in March so far, this one on 12th is definitely toward the top of the range in going for about $2M more, but it’s not at the very top of the total percentage above asking price (but at the % top for the price point).

NOT ALL PARTS OF THE BAY AREA ARE THE SAME

We often hear about aggressive pricing in the Bay Area, but not all counties have that pricing strategy. For instance, here’s a visual to show the sales price to original list price ratio, and the most aggressive counties are San Francisco, Alameda, and Santa Clara. In case you’re not familiar with this metric, 115% in February 2026 in San Francisco means when looking at every sale in the market, the average was going 15% above the original list price. In contrast, there are other Bay Area counties that sell much below the original price on average (more similar to Sacramento).

Thank you Matt Castillo for helping me with Alameda and Contra Costa stats since I don’t have access to those counties for Trendgraphix.

SACRAMENTO DOES NOT FIT IN HERE

When looking at the three most aggressive Bay Area counties, Sacramento simply does not fit in. The highest percentage ever in Sacramento was 105% in early 2021, and that was because the market was going absolutely crazy at the time. But 105% is an everyday stat in these other counties due to pricing strategically low. Just remember that going so far above is not just due to the market in these counties because there is a different pricing strategy at hand.

SOME PORTIONS OF THE BAY AREA ARE SIMILAR TO SAC

Some parts of the Bay Area have a pretty similar pricing strategy compared to Sacramento. Solano in particular has similar vibes.

DEEPER DIVE INTO SACRAMENTO

Here’s what the Sacramento region looks like with four counties, and then a visual with ten counties that looks like total chaos.

DEAR AGENTS & BUYERS

The pricing strategy is not the same in Sacramento and some of the Bay Area, so be sure to look at the comps to understand pricing strategy and market expectations if you end up taking a listing in the other area. Can you imagine imposing a Bay Area or Sacramento pricing strategy if the market expects something else? In Sacramento, properties are generally priced much closer to market value (though there are some examples of lower pricing too). On that note, when Bay Area buyers purchase in Sacramento, watch the comps because you may not be having to pay way over the asking price like you would in Alameda or San Francisco, for instance. When properties are underpriced here, they tend to be maybe 5-10%. I talked about an example recently of a home getting 94 offers, but even in that case, it only sold 40% over the asking price.

SELLING WITHIN TWO WEEKS IN SAN FRANCISCO

In the Bay Area, it’s very common to see offers within two weeks, but when stuff gets bid up in Sacramento, it’s more like the first week or so. In San Francisco, it’s almost like two weeks is the deadline for receiving offers, but that’s not how it works in Sacramento. The average days on market has been only 11 days in March 2026 in San Francisco compared with 46 days in the Sacramento region.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: Which pricing strategy do you prefer? Which strategy can get the best results for a seller? Anything to add?

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The housing market so far in 2026

March 11, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 8 Comments

All ships rise and fall with the tide. That’s one of my favorite things to say in real estate because the trends we see in one local county are often seen in other counties. Let’s talk about this concept as we look at the housing market so far in 2026. I have twelve counties of stats today too in case that’s your thing.

Skim by topic or digest slowly.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

3/12/26 Made 4 More
3/19/26 Yolo YPN event
3/25/26 Coldwell Banker EDH
4/9/26 Realtist Association of Sacramento
4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
4/22/26 EDCAR
4/28/26 PCAR Rocklin
5/7/26 Empire State of Mind
5/15/26 Nevada County TBA
6/3/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin

WHAT ARE THE STATS SHOWING IN DIFFERENT AREAS?

SIMILAR VIBES IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS

No location is immune from the trend. That’s what we’re seeing right now in so many local counties. Softer prices compared to last year, it’s taking a little longer to sell, no huge growth in supply lately, and the spring market is heating up. This doesn’t mean the temperature can’t be hotter or colder in some areas though. All I’m saying is no local location is immune from the softer trend that showed up in the market last year. Yet, not all the parts are the same either. Condos are colder. Entry-level ranges are super-hot if priced right. 55+ in Placer County has been more vibrant than other counties. And there has been more strength at higher prices.

ARE YOU SAYING THE MARKET IS THE SAME EVERYWHERE?

Nope. The housing market is NOT the same in every location. I’m saying all ships tend to rise and fall in a region – not the entire country. Here’s a great way to illustrate what I mean with a ResiClub visual. Some parts of the country are up, and others are down.

“MY AREA DIDN’T DECLINE LAST TIME”

Sometimes people say things like, “My neighborhood didn’t decline during the Great Financial Crisis.” I get the sentiment, but every local neighborhood saw price declines back then. It’s just some higher price points were able to weather the storm a bit better as there wasn’t extreme carnage like entry-level price points had. In short, no neighborhood escaped the trend back then, and the same is true today with every area feeling more softness over the past year (and now heating up for the spring). Know what I’m saying?

SPRING VIBES IN THE STATS

We’re starting to see spring show up in the stats. Here are two examples. Do you see days on market starting to tick down for the season? And check out the median sales price rising in February. These were both expected. Price change ahead is still to be determined, but a February uptick was a safe bet.

SALES VOLUME WAS SLIGHTLY BETTER IN FEBRUARY

Closed sales volume for 2026 is down so far, but February was higher than 2025 (barely). The hope is to see stronger volume ahead since we’ve seen slightly stronger pendings lately that will presumably close in coming months. The theme for 2026 is “stuck, but a little less stuck.” What I mean is the market isn’t poised to see an explosion of volume this year, but the hope is to see a little bit more than last year. For my real estate friends, put your game face on, keep your head down, and don’t get swept up in ultra-positive hype about the market from somebody who might be trying to sell you something.

IS NEW CONSTRUCTION STARTING TO RECOVER?

The new homes market is slightly ahead of last year, which is a little different than the resale market lagging behind overall. Have builders started to attract buyers again? The past two months seem to suggest that as volume has been more vibrant after some lackluster months in 2025. It looks like fat concessions and slightly lower prices have started to work, but I need more than two stronger months to call it a trend.

LET’S INVENT NEW VISUALS FOR 2026 (WE NEED THEM)

Price stats can bounce around so much these days, especially in smaller counties. This is why I made the following visuals to help interpret the market. The median isn’t a perfect price metric (there is no perfect metric), but this visual gets the job done to help show my point that stats can bounce all over the place from month to month. This is why it’s key to look at the entire region as well as Sacramento County to see the bigger picture. Take smaller areas with a grain of salt from month to month.

NOTE: I don’t have these for every county yet. Would you like more?

STATS IN TWELVE COUNTIES (BE CAREFUL OF SMALL AREAS)

Here are year-over-year stats in twelve counties. I changed my format recently. Let me know what works and doesn’t work. I might have month-to-month stats back by next month, but part of me wonders if anyone really uses them (let me know).

Overall, this year looks pretty similar statistically to last year, though price stats are down slightly, and it’s taking a little longer to sell. There isn’t any big change with supply though, and volume is similar in many areas. Keep in mind, closed sales in February mostly represent what happened in pending contracts in January. Like I said last week, the housing market has tightened a bit, so it’s going to be interesting to see what the stats show ahead. Of course, now we have more uncertainty to consider. How long will the war with Iran last? How will consumers respond with higher gas prices (or energy prices maybe)? And what other unexpected things might happen? We need time to understand.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you above? What are you seeing in the market right now? Anything to add?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Getting 94 offers & a tighter housing market

March 5, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 6 Comments

There is a property with 94 offers in Sacramento, and that’s not a typo. Let’s talk about this situation and how many offers most homes are getting. The housing market is actually getting tighter right now, and I want to share some stats to show what I mean.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

FEELING THOSE SPRING VIBES

What it looks like in real estate when there is any hint of positive news. Haha.

GETTING 94 OFFERS IS TRULY WILD

A property was listed at $199,000, and it attracted 94 offers per MLS data (yes, our MLS has the number of offers). The agent who listed the property has been around a long time, and she’s great. All I’m saying is this home was strategically underpriced, and buyers showed up for it. The red dot shows the list price while the blue dots are similar-sized neighborhood homes. Can you see why it garnered so much interest?

HOW MANY OFFERS ARE HOMES GETTING?

We’re in a market where getting one or two offers is the vibe. Or zero if you’re overpriced. Per MLS, 77% of current pendings in the Sacramento region have one or two offers, and only 7.5% of the market is getting five or more. So, 94 is nothing short of extreme. I remember in 2021 when a property in Citrus Heights had 121 offers, and that story went viral. So far, today’s situation hasn’t made the news as far as I can tell, but maybe it’ll show up soon since it’s a conversation piece.

Pro tip. Don’t expect to get 94 offers. Haha.

THERE IS SOMETHING ABOUT FIXERS THOUGH

This 94-offer example is indicative of a price strategy rather than the market being so hot. Yet, there is no mistaking there is a massive appetite for low-priced fixers (the subject was a fixer). In fact, 86% of properties with ten or more offers in the region right now are priced under $500,000 (likely underpriced under $500K).

MORE COMPETITION AT LOWER PRICES

The market isn’t the same at every price range. Do you see how there are more offers at lower prices and not as many at the highest? This is a normal dynamic, but it’s fascinating to see visually. I think this underscores how freakish it is to see 20 or more offers also.

BAR CHARTS IN CASE YOU HATE TABLES

Here are a couple bar charts in case the table above isn’t cutting the mustard. Are you team table or team bar chart? I go back and forth and have a hard time choosing. I love all my children equally. I think the first bar chart is easier to digest though.

THE HOUSING MARKET HAS BEEN GETTING TIGHTER

Look, the housing market is not ultra hot like 2021, but it is more competitive than one year ago technically. Locally, we’re seeing demand grow slightly more than supply, and I think it feels hotter next to the dull summer market last year too. Market competition levels are now very similar to the pre-2020 norm after having been softer for so much of last year.

I suspect some might read my post and expect heavy competition, but that’s not what I’m saying. There is definitely solid competition for well-priced homes, but there are many homes lingering. Buyers are very picky today about price, condition, and location, and I think some sellers are still underestimating that.

SERIOUSLY THOUGH, CHECK OUT THESE GRAPHS

The red line represents the pre-2020 norm, and last year a gap really started to grow as the market softened. Well, the gap is now closing since supply and demand have come closer together this year (black line). Does this mean the market is totally normal? Nope. All I’m saying is competition has changed, and February stats now have tightened to a very normal level. It’s important to note competition levels are on par with the norm too. Nothing freakish. Let’s continue to watch this emerging trend and stay grounded.

UNCERTAINTY MATTERS (IRAN)

Someone asked me to describe the housing market, and I mentioned some of the spring vibes we’re seeing, but I also said a week ago we didn’t even know about conflict with Iran. This reminds us unexpected things can happen, and sometimes there is an effect on buyers and sellers (or the direction of rates). Granted, I don’t think we can say military action has affected the housing market yet, so let’s avoid clickbait, but this is something to continue to watch – especially if it ends up being prolonged.

This is how I view the housing market. It’s not just about what happens with rates. Consumers care about the job market, economy, and uncertainty is a really big deal.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: Can you imagine getting 94 offers? What are you seeing in the market right now? Anything to add?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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