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Home prices, uncertainty, and the Iran War

April 10, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 7 Comments

Has housing momentum slowed? It feels like the market had more energy as the year began since affordability was mildly better, but here we are with higher rates and the Iran War. Yet, we’re also in the midst of a spring price increase and sellers coming back to the market, so this isn’t the same level of uncertainty we felt last year. Let’s talk about it.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
4/22/26 EDCAR
4/28/26 PCAR Rocklin
5/7/26 Empire State of Mind
5/13/26 Investor Webinar TBA
5/14/26 Event TBA
5/15/26 Nevada County TBA
5/21/26 Event TBA
6/3/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH

1) UNCERTAINTY IS HERE AGAIN, BUT IT’S DIFFERENT

The curve ball for the 2025 housing market was uncertainty since sellers unexpectedly backed off the market last spring and summer. And now here we are again with another dose of uncertainty with the Iran War and higher rates. My sense is we haven’t seen consumers back off like they did last year though, so for now it doesn’t feel like we’ve hit a huge inflection point. Yet, I’m getting a sense of softening demand when talking with the real estate community, so it’s possible we could see this sentiment show up in the stats in a few months. Ultimately, it’s important to continue to watch how things unfold in Iran as well as at the gas pump, energy prices, etc…

But new construction volume was weaker than expected in March. Here’s a telling quote from Tim Murphy, who is the CEO of North State BIA. When talking about new construction in the Sacramento region, he said:

While March generally sees the highest number of new home sales in the area, It seems clear that buyers were concerned about the uptick in mortgage interest rates, skyrocketing gasoline prices, a falling stock market and other economic reactions to the war.

For some, it’s almost impossible to talk about this stuff without getting political, and I get it. But politics aside, consumer confidence and affordability matter for the marketplace, and that’s why we need to keep having conversation. Let’s just stay grounded and avoid sensationalism.

2) GOOD NEWS: SELLERS HAVING BEEN COMING BACK

On one hand, we’ve felt more uncertainty brewing, but through March sellers have actually been coming back to the market after notably backing off for the second half of last year. That’s why I’m saying it doesn’t feel the same as last year. Check out how the blue bars were up by 20% compared to the red bars in early 2025, but then the growth stopped. The positive news is we’ve had four months in a row now where new listings have outpaced 2024 levels, and this past month actually beat 2025. This is honestly great news because more supply is healthy for the housing market. In short, if sellers feel uncertain, it hasn’t showed up in the stats yet. Will this change in the future? Only time will tell, so we need to watch seller behavior closely.

3) BUYER DEMAND WAS STRONGER IN MARCH

March had a couple percent more sales this year, which is good to see, but overall buyer demand is basically the same as last year (very slightly ahead). Pick your poison. Call volume flat or get hyped over being technically just a little higher today. And remember, the worst part of 2007 was in the second half of the year – not the very beginning. Some people look at stats like this and say we’re worse than 2007 today. Well, that’s true for the beginning of 2007. Not true for the second half of the year. No sugarcoating though. Volume is incredibly low right now.

4) PRICES ARE DOWN & UP

Two things are true here. Price metrics are down about 1-2% from one year ago, but we’re also seeing a spring uptick in 2026 so far. So, they’re down, but there’s a seasonal gain happening too. Let me show you what I mean by starting off with year-over-year metrics being down.

Do you see an uptick happening for the spring of 2026 so far though? So, we’re clearly seeing some expected normal seasonality. But remember, part of the increase has to do with larger homes selling. And the median isn’t a perfect metric either (there is no perfect metric). In coming weeks, I’ll share a few Sacramento price indexes as they get published. These days, it’s a good idea to look to a few stats beyond the median and average. To date though, all five or six price metrics I’ve been watching have been telling the same story for Sacramento. Down a little from the previous year.

5) THE MARKET ISN’T THE SAME EVERYWHERE

It’s easy to say the same thing about every location, but the real estate market isn’t exactly the same, so it’s important to not try to fit every single location into one neat little slogan. Here’s a cool new visual I’ve been playing with to help show how properties sold compared to their original price. What do you think? Does this have potential? Yay or nay?

And some other visuals. It’s not a mistake that Land Park does NOT have yellow (there were zero sales at exactly the original price last month). By the way, Land Park and East Sac have been very competitive lately. No joke.

BIG MARKET UPDATE

And now for any onlookers who want some hardcore stats for twelve local counties, here you go.

BE CAREFUL ABOUT SMALLER COUNTIES

I’m hesitant to even push out stats in some areas because the numbers bounce around so much from month to month. As an example, let’s look at El Dorado County. This past month was down -7.5%, but the previous two months were up substantially. This is EXACTLY why it’s important to not build a narrative on one month of data (happens all the time though).

PAY ATTENTION TO OUR LARGEST LOCAL COUNTY

I find all local counties are basically experiencing the same trend, but the smaller areas bounce around more statistically. My advice? Stay focused on the trend in Sacramento, our largest local county. It serves as a bellwether for other nearby counties in my opinion. This doesn’t mean the market is exactly the same in every single price range and location, but we do tend to see all ships rise and fall with the tide though too.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR STATS IN 12 COUNTIES

Big counties. Small counties. I have them all. I changed my format a couple months ago. I realize this is a bit crazy because there are so many stats, so it’s maybe not as user-friendly. I think it packs a punch though with some pretty interesting stats. I was getting a little bored with the previous images. I’ll admit this is maybe too much though, so I’m open to feedback. Let me know what you think.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you most above? Do you think uncertainty is showing up in the housing market?

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The top locations where buyers are moving?

April 1, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 16 Comments

Last week I was giving a presentation, and I could tell people were getting excited when I mentioned the #1 location where buyers are moving in the United States. Cell phones were starting to come out to snap a pic of my slide, but I said, “Wait, don’t take a pic yet.” The truth is there can be a big difference between headlines and reality in real estate, and today I want to talk about a big headline that involves many cities around the country.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

4/9/26 Realtist Association of Sacramento
4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
4/22/26 EDCAR
4/28/26 PCAR Rocklin
5/7/26 Empire State of Mind
5/15/26 Nevada County TBA
6/3/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin

ARE THESE THE TOP 10 AREAS BUYERS ARE MOVING?

Redfin recently published some stats on their socials to talk about locations buyers are moving into, and people love stuff like this. But there’s a big problem. While I’m a fan of migration data (and Redfin stats), these are NOT actual buyers, but rather search queries where people looked up homes on Redfin’s website. What this means is Sacramento came up first on the list for people outside of Sacramento looking up the local market.

Here’s the consumer takeaway. Bro, Sacramento is the hottest market in the country. But hold that thought. Let’s look at actual stats below.

Also, here’s a top ten list where “buyers” are said to be leaving. I saw someone online with a political takeaway about red and blue cities based on these stats. Ha.

THE FINE PRINT SHOWS THESE AREN’T BUYERS

The methodology from Redfin is clear that these are “potential migrants,” but the language on their visuals shows “buyers.” Look, I like some of what Redfin puts out there, but this is disingenuous. There is no other way to say it. The problem here is people walk away forming ideas about the housing market, but search queries may not reflect what’s actually happening. I’m all for talking about these stats though. Let’s just get the labels right by calling these search queries instead of buyers. Know what I’m saying?

THE BIG DISCONNECT WITH THESE STATS

Sacramento has been making Redfin’s top list of buyer destinations for the past few years, and yet we’ve had some of the lowest sales volume ever. So, there is a real disconnect between people searching online and actual purchases happening. Could some of the Redfin users have purchased in Sacramento? Or could some be future buyers? Of course. But it’s ironic for Sacramento to be at the top of a hot list when our volume is flirting with some of the lowest we’ve ever had.

WHY ARE YOU MAKING A BIG DEAL OUT OF THIS?

People form narratives based on headlines, and most people don’t read the fine print in situations like this. If you don’t believe me, check out Redfin’s IG post where they share this data, and ask yourself if people think these are buyers or search queries. In short, I care about accuracy, and let’s just be real about the market that exists. Besides, the last thing sellers need to see right now is that “Sacramento is the hottest market in the country.” I know, some might ask, “C’mon, Ryan, can’t we just have this small bit of optimism?” Hey, I’m not trying to crush anyone’s outlook. Please believe whatever you want. If you want to take encouragement that people are looking up “Sacramento” while in other locations, I think that’s cool. Let’s just keep it real and avoid false narratives. However, if your optimism is based on buyer stats that aren’t real, is that helpful? Asking for a friend.

SUPPLEMENTARY STATS ARE COOL, BUT BE CAREFUL

The cool part about Redfin’s stats is we’ve never had stuff like before prior to the internet, so it’s fascinating to think about tracking search queries and wondering if there is a connection to the actual market. I mean, maybe there is, but it might take years for queries to pan out – especially in today’s market where the math is tough. No matter what, we have to be careful with anecdotal or supplementary stuff like this because the trend might not line up with actual stats.

This reminds me of something else. There was a recent viral narrative about Google searches for “Can’t sell my house” being at an all-time high. Okay, that’s interesting, but what does it mean? And are there other housing stats we can look at to understand the market? Or do we just walk away with the narrative that it must be the worst market ever if these searches are at an all-time high? Or I think of people highlighting Zillow maps with the number of listings or notice of defaults. That’s super interesting data, but we don’t really know if the number being shown is normal or not. In other words, there’s no context for interpretation.

All I’m saying is we have to compare ideas with actual stats at some point.

NEW MIGRATION STATS FROM CALIFORNIA POLICY LAB

The California Policy Lab introduced some new migration stats this week for the state, and I made a visual with their data. The cool part is their stats track credit information, not just stats from the Census Bureau as I’ve shared before. Anyway, here’s a look at exits and entrances to the state over the past ten years.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you most above? Do you think there is a connection between search queries and buyers?

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Why haven’t home prices crashed?

March 26, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 12 Comments

It’s 2007 all over again. Get ready because we’re going to crash. We’ve been hearing this for five years, but here we are in a market with high prices and not much relief. Let’s look at why prices haven’t crashed like so many have predicted.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

3/27/26 Prime Real Estate (private)
4/9/26 Realtist Association of Sacramento
4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
4/22/26 EDCAR
4/28/26 PCAR Rocklin
5/7/26 Empire State of Mind
5/15/26 Nevada County TBA
6/3/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker EDH

ACTIVE LISTINGS ARE NOWHERE NEAR 2008 LEVELS

In our largest local county, we had nearly 9,000 active listings at this time in 2008 compared with 1,500 today. Can you imagine how different the housing market would feel if we added 7,500 more listings? No wonder why prices haven’t been able to implode like back then since the supply situation is far different today.

NOT THE WIDEST GAP EVER BETWEEN BUYERS & SELLERS

There is so much talk about the housing market having the widest gap ever between sellers and buyers, but let’s check the fine print. Look, I really like much of what Redfin puts out there, but this narrative is a miss. There is a viral Redfin story about “the biggest gap on record” with sellers outnumbering buyers, but their stats only go back to 2013, so “biggest gap” needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The problem is people hear “on record” and assume it’s even worse than 2007 today.

ONE THING IS NOT LIKE THE OTHER

There is a massive difference today compared with the carnage of the Great Financial Crisis. I wish there were more data sources showing this online so we can have informed discussions. It seems like listing data from the GFC just isn’t available or shared for whatever reason. So, here’s some local flavor. What stands out to you?

ONLY VOLUME STATS ARE SIMILAR TO THE CRASH

I think people often flippantly compare today with 2007 without really looking into the numbers. Out of all the stats I follow, the only one that is similar to those days is the number of sales happening. Housing supply was exponentially higher in those days, it was taking over 100 days to sell compared to about 40 days lately, prices were tanking compared with softening a couple percent this past year, and the market was dominated by foreclosures (they hardly exist today). I don’t say any of this to sugarcoat the trend today, so save your hate mail. I’m only trying to say we need to be cautious about flippantly saying it’s 2007 again in the stats. This doesn’t mean there aren’t red flags to watch today either such as mortgage delinquencies.

THE MARKET HAS GROWN SOFTER THOUGH

The gap between listings and sales has widened in recent years, so I get people talking about the housing market being softer or prices dipping. But the gap between listings and sales has been nowhere wide enough in most areas to create quick price change like we saw in 2007 and 2008. So, maybe stop telling people we’re going to see a 2007 implosion with 2026 stats. Could we still see prices go down though? Of course.

One thing to continue to watch ahead is buyer and seller behavior in light of higher mortgage rates and gas prices (Iran War). I don’t think the local housing market has seen an inflection point yet in the stats from this, but if rates keep moving up and confidence moves down, that’ll show up in the numbers at some point. The positive news in recent months is we’ve been seeing sellers come back to the market this year after backing off in 2025. The hope is to see this continue since we need more supply if we ever want this housing market to heal and not feel stuck.

2007 ISN’T THE ONLY TIME PRICES DROPPED

Some people treat what happened in 2007 like the new template for every future housing market correction, but what happened then isn’t the new formula for every downtrend ahead. Locally, prices dipped in the early ’80s and ’90s, so it’s not like 2007 is the only example on record of prices ever dropping. Here’s a snippet from the Sacramento Bee in 1994 to show year-over-year downward price change.

The median sales price declined 24% during the early ’90s. I realize we are dealing with smaller numbers, but that’s what the market was like back then. Declines felt real to people back then, so be careful about looking at this with the benefit of knowing the future.

SUPPLY HASN’T BUILT LIKE IT DID BACK THEN

One of the huge differences between back then and today is supply began to build immediately in the summer of 2005. In fact, it tripled in one year. Meanwhile, prices dropped 6% during this time, but the bigger issue was how much supply was building in the background to set the stage for an implosion in 2007. In contrast, supply is still pretty limited today no matter how we look at it, and prices have dropped about 7% to 8% over the course of FOUR YEARS. Notably, we don’t have a ton of supply that has built to help create quick change ahead like we did back then.

I realize some people say, “But the crash looks different today. It’s a slow burn crash over many years.” Umm, okay, then let’s call it a correction instead since a crash by definition is something sharp and quick.

FOUR LONG YEARS AND THIS IS ALL WE HAVE

It’s been nearly four years since prices peaked in the local market. The median sales price is down 8% in the region from mid-2022, and Zillow’s price index for Sacramento is down about 7%. I’m not glossing over this decline, but it’s stunning to only be down this amount in the midst of glaring affordability issues. The x-factor for why prices haven’t dropped more substantially is a lack of supply. Sellers have not been coming to the market at normal levels and distressed inventory has hardly built. By the way, I find myself these days looking at lots of different price metrics to interpret change (not just the median or average).

NOTE: Don’t be rigid about saying prices are down this exact amount in every neighborhood and price range. Look to the comps.

CLOSING THOUGHTS

Let’s keep watching the market and being cautious about looking at things through a doom or rose-colored lens. Imposing a narrative on the market makes conversation boring for me when we’re stuck in polarizing positions instead of trying to interpret what is in front of us. The goal here is to let the stats form the narrative rather than impose a narrative on the stats. And right now, we can say the housing market has definitely softened in recent years, but it’s also nothing like 2007 in the stats too.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you most above? What similarities and differences do you see today with 2007? Anything to add?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Selling $2M over the list price

March 18, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 6 Comments

A property in San Francisco just sold two million dollars over the asking price, and it’s been getting viral attention. I thought it would be fun to dig into this one and highlight some stunning stats. Let’s compare Sacramento pricing vibes to the Bay Area also since agents can make some big mistakes when taking listings in the other area.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

3/19/26 Yolo YPN event
3/25/26 Coldwell Banker EDH
3/27/26 Prime Real Estate (private)
4/9/26 Realtist Association of Sacramento
4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
4/22/26 EDCAR
4/28/26 PCAR Rocklin
5/7/26 Empire State of Mind
5/15/26 Nevada County TBA
6/3/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker EDH

GOING TWO MILLION OVER ASKING PRICE

This property on 12th Avenue is getting viral attention since it sold just about $2M over the asking price. I’ll let locals digest whether the price tag was above value or not. I’m only going to focus on it selling $2M above.

SAN FRANCISCO PRICING IS A DIFFERENT ANIMAL

In some portions of the Bay Area, properties are priced strategically low to generate quick interest, and that’s true in San Francisco (I’ll share other Bay Area counties below). Over 90% of sales so far in March 2026 have sold ABOVE the original list price, and when properties sold above, they went 20% above on average. Homes have sold in an average of 11 days too, so it’s lighting speed time. In short, this is a market where almost everything is priced low on purpose. I realize there is an AI tech boom happening right now, but pricing strategically low has been a vibe for many years beyond just recent time. For context, check out how different Sacramento is compared to San Francisco.

HOW COMMON IS IT TO SELL $2M ABOVE?

Selling $2M above doesn’t happen very often, and so far in 2026, this is basically flirting with a few other examples at the same level. The average above in March 2026 has been $474,774.

Let’s look at it from a percentage standpoint too. This property on 12th Avenue sold about 65% above the original price, and that’s definitely on the higher side of the range, but there was one property at just over 90%.

LOOKING AT THE ENTIRE BAY AREA

And when looking at the entire Bay Area in March so far, this one on 12th is definitely toward the top of the range in going for about $2M more, but it’s not at the very top of the total percentage above asking price (but at the % top for the price point).

NOT ALL PARTS OF THE BAY AREA ARE THE SAME

We often hear about aggressive pricing in the Bay Area, but not all counties have that pricing strategy. For instance, here’s a visual to show the sales price to original list price ratio, and the most aggressive counties are San Francisco, Alameda, and Santa Clara. In case you’re not familiar with this metric, 115% in February 2026 in San Francisco means when looking at every sale in the market, the average was going 15% above the original list price. In contrast, there are other Bay Area counties that sell much below the original price on average (more similar to Sacramento).

Thank you Matt Castillo for helping me with Alameda and Contra Costa stats since I don’t have access to those counties for Trendgraphix.

SACRAMENTO DOES NOT FIT IN HERE

When looking at the three most aggressive Bay Area counties, Sacramento simply does not fit in. The highest percentage ever in Sacramento was 105% in early 2021, and that was because the market was going absolutely crazy at the time. But 105% is an everyday stat in these other counties due to pricing strategically low. Just remember that going so far above is not just due to the market in these counties because there is a different pricing strategy at hand.

SOME PORTIONS OF THE BAY AREA ARE SIMILAR TO SAC

Some parts of the Bay Area have a pretty similar pricing strategy compared to Sacramento. Solano in particular has similar vibes.

DEEPER DIVE INTO SACRAMENTO

Here’s what the Sacramento region looks like with four counties, and then a visual with ten counties that looks like total chaos.

DEAR AGENTS & BUYERS

The pricing strategy is not the same in Sacramento and some of the Bay Area, so be sure to look at the comps to understand pricing strategy and market expectations if you end up taking a listing in the other area. Can you imagine imposing a Bay Area or Sacramento pricing strategy if the market expects something else? In Sacramento, properties are generally priced much closer to market value (though there are some examples of lower pricing too). On that note, when Bay Area buyers purchase in Sacramento, watch the comps because you may not be having to pay way over the asking price like you would in Alameda or San Francisco, for instance. When properties are underpriced here, they tend to be maybe 5-10%. I talked about an example recently of a home getting 94 offers, but even in that case, it only sold 40% over the asking price.

SELLING WITHIN TWO WEEKS IN SAN FRANCISCO

In the Bay Area, it’s very common to see offers within two weeks, but when stuff gets bid up in Sacramento, it’s more like the first week or so. In San Francisco, it’s almost like two weeks is the deadline for receiving offers, but that’s not how it works in Sacramento. The average days on market has been only 11 days in March 2026 in San Francisco compared with 46 days in the Sacramento region.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: Which pricing strategy do you prefer? Which strategy can get the best results for a seller? Anything to add?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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