The housing market is not on Ozempic. What I mean is it’s been a really slow burn to get healthy, and there isn’t a miracle housing drug available to help affordability happen fast. Yet, we’ve actually seen some progress in 2026, and I suspect some markets around the country can relate to what’s happening in Sacramento.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:
8/25/26 Elk Grove MLS Meeting 8:30am
9/1/26 ROG Talks
9/15/26 Culbertson & Gray
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH

5% HEALTHIER IS A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION
The most positive news in the housing market today is the number of closed sales is up slightly compared to last year in many locations around the country. Granted, it’s not really a huge brag to outpace such a dull year in 2025, but this is still a step in the right direction to have the best first seven months of the year since 2022 locally. There have been just over 500 additional sales this year in the Sacramento region. When I finalize these stats in a few weeks, I think it’ll be up closer to 600 sales. Keep in mind, it’s hard to see 5% change unless you’re really watching closely. It would be like weighing 200 pounds and losing 10 pounds (5%). Almost nobody can tell, but at some point, it starts becoming more noticeable if progress continues.

ALMOST EVERY LOCAL COUNTY IS SEEING GROWTH
All ships rise and fall with the tide. What I mean is the trend of more sales has been hitting almost every county (besides Yuba and San Joaquin).

EXPECT A SLOW BURN OF CHANGE
The housing market is stuck, and it’s hard to imagine quick change ahead unless we see a sharper change to the amount of supply on the market. Like I said, there is no Ozempic to help us get fit faster. The hope is to slowly get more buyers and sellers back this year, or to be slightly less stuck. By the way, I feel this as a guy turning fifty in two months. It’s not easy to get back into shape and drop those 20 stubborn pounds… Did I say that out loud? Yes, I did.

LOWER PRICES ARE LEADING THE WAY
So many headlines talk about first-time buyers getting destroyed in today’s housing market, but we’re seeing the most growth locally between $400,000 to $500,000 – a prime first-time buyer range. Granted, having more sales in a lower price bucket could reflect prices softening from last year, but it does feel like there are more first-time buyers than headlines suggest. So many of the articles today are citing NAR’s generational survey, and I find myself skeptical. This 120-question national survey only had 6,103 responses, and I’m not sure that’s enough to support narratives about Boomers dominating first-time buyers or first-time buyers now being forty years old. I’m not anti-NAR, and I could be wrong, but I’ll keep bringing this up since this survey continues to create viral headlines. The Sacramento Bee even ran a story last month saying, “Boomers are crushing young homebuyers.” So, this matters.

IT’S SLIGHTLY MORE COMPETITIVE TODAY
A good way to describe the housing trend today (black line) is it’s softer than the pre-2020 norm (red line), but more competitive than last year (blue line). The number of homes selling above the asking price is ahead of 2025, and there aren’t as many homes going below the original list price either. I know this is maybe a different or weird way to think about the market, but it’s just one way I consider housing temperature.

DEMAND HAS SOFTENED A LITTLE LATELY
Demand has been stronger all year, but it softened a little in July as mortgage rates ticked up. This isn’t a massive hit to demand, but when talking to agents and loan officers, I’m finding most say they’re feeling slightly less demand in the trenches. Let’s keep watching mortgage rates and inflation, and it would probably help if the Iran War came to an end too. A Mike Simonsen national visual:

And local pendings. After a very decent performance in early spring, pendings have been more lackluster lately. The number of pendings usually drops from June to July, but being a little closer to 2024 and 2025 is what I’m talking about when saying demand has softened a little.

GETTING HEALTHY AFTER HITTING THE BOTTOM
There is no sugarcoating it. The past few years have seen some of the lowest buyer activity on record. This is not me being negative. It’s simply the reality of the market. But can you see the progress as 2026 is ahead of 2023, 2024, and 2025? This isn’t a huge change, but it’s a step in the right direction. In 2008, we saw a very quick change with more buyers able to enter the market since prices went down so fast, but it’s been a slow burn in recent years. If we want to get healthy, it sure would help to have more listings. By the way, there were three times as many listings in 2008 compared to today’s numbers in the Sacramento region (that’s about 9,000 more).

PRICES HAVE BEEN PRETTY FLAT
I’ll have updated price stats out next week to recap July, but here’s a preliminary look at the trend. Do you see how flat it’s been over the past few years?

DUDE, WHERE’S MY EQUITY?
A friend the other day was telling me a current listing was basically priced the same as it was in 2021 when the owner overpaid, but it wasn’t attracting any interest today. Dude, where’s my car? Dude, where’s my equity? That’s a question some sellers are asking. For my real estate friends, be ready to have this conversation more in light of the horizontal price trend.

CHANGE ISN’T HITTING EVERYONE AT ONCE
I find it’s very uneven when talking to real estate friends about the housing market becoming a little bit healthier this year. “Bro, where is this extra volume you speak of?” In short, some people are having a better year, but many others are in the thick of struggle. All I can say is change doesn’t hit everyone evenly. If I could offer any encouragement, I’d say to keep figuring out how to position yourself for the market that is happening, build relationships, increase the size of your network, be a resource to your database, don’t copy others (be yourself), and move toward the challenge of the market every single day. I don’t think there is a one-size-fits-all formula either, which is encouraging. Come up with a plan and stick to it.
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